Qubahan Academic Journal

Oil Price Shocks, Fiscal Asymmetry, and Digital Governance in MENA Economies: A Panel VAR Analysis

Bazi Mohamed — 2026-10-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between oil-price shocks, fiscal dynamics, and digital-governance readiness in twelve MENA economies over 2013–2024 using a first-difference Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model. The first-difference specification is adopted following the absence of evidence for a long-run cointegrating relationship among the integrated fiscal and digital-governance variables. Three main findings emerge. First, oil-price shocks constitute a major external driver of fiscal dynamics, accounting for approximately 29–30% of the forecast error variance of the fiscal balance across the horizons considered and approximately 25–31% of public-debt variance. Second, the transmission is strongly asymmetric across country groups. Among oil exporters, a 1% increase in Brent prices is associated with a 0.165-percentage-point increase in the fiscal balance (p < 0.001), whereas the corresponding coefficient for oil importers is statistically indistinguishable from zero (+0.001, p = 0.915). This contrast is consistent with the different fiscal transmission mechanisms associated with hydrocarbon revenues, energy-import costs, subsidies, inflation, and domestic economic activity. Third, digital-governance readiness, measured through an annual proxy based on the first principal component of internet penetration and WGI political stability, does not exhibit statistically significant Granger-predictive causality with fiscal outcomes at the annual frequency. The Granger-causality tests yield an F-statistic of 0.034 (p = 0.853) for digital governance predicting changes in the fiscal balance and 0.287 (p = 0.593) for the reverse direction. These results provide no evidence of a short-run predictive relationship between digital-governance readiness and fiscal-balance changes at the annual frequency. Finally, we construct a Budget Resilience and AI Index (BRAI) as a descriptive cross-sectional scorecard of the twelve MENA economies, combining fiscal resilience and digital readiness. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of oil-price exposure and country-specific fiscal structures in explaining short-run fiscal dynamics, while suggesting that the aggregate fiscal effects of digital-governance readiness may not be detectable at an annual frequency.

The Role of ESG Governance and Internal Control in Preventing Corporate Tax Fraud: Expert Perspectives

Zineb El Idrissi — 2026-10-01

Corporate tax fraud is a growing phenomenon not only in terms of legal control and audit but also in terms of corporate responsibility and stakeholder control. This study aims to describe how Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) governance and internal control mechanisms could work together to prevent companies’ tax fraud and improve tax behavior. The research was conducted using a qualitative methodology. The study involved 15 semi-structured interviews with experts in corporate taxation, auditing, control, and governance. The interviews were analyzed using Nvivo software. The results of the study revealed that ESG governance could improve the situation if it is integrated with tax responsibilities through the development of appropriate control mechanisms. They also showed that there is a significant decoupling risk between ESG goals and actual tax behaviors due to competing financial and managerial incentives. The analysis also revealed that the prevention of corporate tax fraud requires an ethical and accountable governance system, whistleblower policies, ESG disclosure mechanisms, and digital technologies. Such technologies as artificial intelligence could be used to improve monitoring and detect tax fraud in a timely manner. The research provides theoretical and practical contributions to the understanding of how to prevent corporate tax fraud by transforming ESG governance mechanisms and internal control systems. It also provides several suggestions for practitioners and policymakers in the field.

Dividend Policy in the Managerial Ownership-Leverage-Performance Nexus: Evidence from Indonesian Consumer Goods Firms

Ronni Andri Wijaya — 2026-10-01

Consumer goods manufacturers must sustain operations and profitability amid post-pandemic macroeconomic uncertainty. Prior studies report inconsistent effects of managerial ownership and leverage on financial performance, while the mediating role of dividend policy remains underexamined, particularly in Indonesia's consumer goods sector. This study examines the effects of managerial ownership and leverage on financial performance and tests dividend policy as a mediator. The framework integrates Agency Theory, Pecking Order Theory, and Signaling Theory. The population comprised 97 consumer goods manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during 2020-2024. Purposive sampling yielded 95 firm-year observations from 19 companies. Secondary data were obtained from audited annual reports and official IDX publications and analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics 25. Managerial ownership and leverage had significant positive effects on dividend policy. Managerial ownership had a significant positive effect on financial performance, whereas leverage had a significant negative effect. Dividend policy did not significantly affect financial performance. Sobel tests further indicated that dividend policy did not mediate either the managerial ownership-financial performance relationship or the leverage-financial performance relationship. The findings suggest that corporate governance alignment and capital-structure decisions influence financial performance more directly than dividend distribution does in this sample.

Determinants of Tax Revenue Performance in Morocco: Evidence from an ARDL Model

Nissar Yassine — 2026-10-01

Based on the ARDL framework, this research investigates the factors that characterize tax revenue performance in Morocco during 2000–2023. Potential overparameterization in the small annual sample is addressed through a parsimonious Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) (1,0,2,0,1,0,0) specification that captures dynamic relationships among the variables. The results indicate that tax revenue is persistent, as the lagged dependent variable is positive and highly significant. Political stability has a significant contemporaneous relationship with tax revenue, while the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) shows a positive contemporaneous effect followed by a negative lagged effect. Under the same specification, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and foreign direct investment (FDI) are not statistically significant, whereas unemployment is negatively associated with tax revenue at the 10% significance level. The exact finite-sample bounds F-test provides inconclusive evidence of a long-run level relationship, and the complementary bounds t-test does not support cointegration. Accordingly, the reported long-run multipliers are interpreted as conditional model-implied estimates rather than established equilibrium effects. Overall, tax revenue performance in Morocco is better characterized by persistence and short-run macroeconomic and institutional dynamics than by a statistically established long-run relationship. The findings also underscore the need for caution when drawing causal policy conclusions from a small annual sample.

Government Support Index and Public Support for Public-Private Partnerships in Asian Countries

Saulegul Reidolda — 2026-10-02

The purpose of the study is to assess the level of government support for Public – Private Partnership (PPP) in Asian countries, identify the main factors affecting it and assess their impact on the implementation of PPP projects. The study covers 15 Asian countries. As a methodological basis, the PPP Government Support Index (GSI) was developed and calculates according to five criteria: regulation, institutions, maturity, investment and business climate and financing. Different initial data were normalized to a single 0-2 scale, and measurements were combined with the corresponding weight. The stability of the index was tested using alternative weighting scenarios. The results showed that there are significant differences in the level of government support for PPP among Asian countries. The stability analysis showed that the relative positions of countries are largely maintained. The results of the study show the importance of improving the institutional and regulatory environment, the investment climate and financing mechanisms in improving the effectiveness of PPP. The updated GSI framework offers a functional and analytically sound instrument for assessing government support programs, pinpointing policy discrepancies, and overseeing focused approaches to enhance PPP management and infrastructure growth in Asia.

Professional Competencies as the Foundation for the Formation of Professional Mobility of Future Choreographers

Azizkhanova Didar Karimzhanovna — 2026-10-07

The modern system for training dance teachers is evolving against a backdrop of constantly evolving educational technologies, changing labour market demands and the expanding professional roles of specialists in the creative fields. In this context, professional success is determined not only by the level of specialist training, but also by a graduate’s ability to adapt to new professional challenges, master various types of activity and work effectively within a changing educational and cultural environment. This ability depends largely on the development of professional competences, which are not merely a collection of individual pieces of knowledge and skills, but rather the integrative foundation for the future specialist’s professional mobility. The aim of this study is to provide a theoretical basis for, and to experimentally test, a model for the development of professional mobility among future choreographers, based on the development of professional competences during their university training. The study was conducted using a quasi-experimental design combining quantitative and qualitative methods of analysis. To assess the dynamics of the development of professional mobility, the following methods were employed: questionnaires, pedagogical observation, expert assessment, and analysis of learning outcomes, test tasks and methods of statistical analysis of the results. The development of professional mobility was examined through the development of the motivational-value, cognitive, activity-based and reflective components of professional competence. The results obtained indicate that the systematic development of professional competences leads to a statistically significant improvement in students’ readiness for professional adaptation, the adoption of innovative teaching methods, the fulfilment of various professional roles, and the ability to make independent decisions in non-standard professional situations. The most pronounced changes were identified in the development of professional motivation, pedagogical flexibility, communicative interaction and the ability to reflectively analyse one’s own activities. The scientific novelty of this study lies in establishing professional competences as the systemic foundation for the development of professional mobility among future choreographers, and in developing a structural-functional model that integrates the content of training, pedagogical conditions and mechanisms for assessing outcomes. The practical significance of this work lies in the potential for the proposed model to be used in the modernisation of educational programmes for training choreography teachers and specialists in the field of arts education.

Responsible AI Governance in Organizational Decision-Making: A Conceptual Framework of Calibrated Trust, Ethical Acceptability, and Decision Legitimacy.

Mohamed Hamza Bennani — 2026-10-01

By functioning in an advisory capacity, AI systems are playing an increasingly central role in organizational decision-making, yet their value cannot be assessed based solely on predictive performance. This article describes the governance-centered conceptual model of how technological governance capability and organizational governance capability jointly shape decision quality and decision legitimacy, both of which are distinct outcomes of AI-augmented decision-making. Our proposal not only considers calibration of trust in AI but also ethical acceptability (ecological validity) as parallel mechanisms rather than a fixed serial sequence. Calibrated trust is whether a decision-maker can count on AI at the level that it claims to perform, and ethical acceptability whether AI-supported decisions are justifiable in fairness, safety, privacy, human oversight, traceability & accountability. Learning culture is suggested as an organizational boundary condition by which the influence of organizational governance capability (with a positive sign) on calibrated trust and ethical acceptability is enhanced, while regulatory institutional pressure is proposed to strengthen (with a positive sign) the link between ethical acceptability and decision legitimacy. The framework also differentiates formative higher-order governance capabilities from evaluative mechanisms at the individual level and clarifies their levels of analysis. An example conceptual application to AI-enabled credit decisions is provided to demonstrate how the framework can be connected to verifiable governance evidence without claiming empirical validation. The model provides a unified explanation of the ways in which AI-governance capabilities can influence sound and institutionally justifiable organizational decisions across levels.

From Parental Values to Sustainable Family Relationships: A Socio-Pedagogical Model of Value-Oriented Family Upbringing

Akmonshak Nugman — 2026-10-01

This study examines the development and empirical validation of a value-oriented model of family upbringing that explains how parental value orientations are translated into everyday interaction practices and contribute to the formation of sustainable family relationships. In the context of ongoing social transformations, many existing approaches focus on isolated aspects of family life, while the dynamic interrelation between motivational orientations, emotional climate, and pedagogical practices remains insufficiently explored. Addressing this gap, the present research proposes an integrative model that combines value-based, emotional-communicative, and practice-oriented dimensions of family functioning. Methodologically, the study adopts a mixed-methods design. At the quantitative stage, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was employed to examine the relationships between parental values, family climate characteristics, and indicators of relationship sustainability. The model demonstrated robust fit indices and showed that family climate acts as a key mediating mechanism through which parental value orientations are transformed into stable patterns of interaction. The qualitative stage, based on in-depth interviews, provided insight into how values are enacted in everyday family life through shared rituals, emotional support, open communication, joint coping strategies, and sustained cooperation between families and schools. The findings indicate that the sustainability of family relationships should be understood not as a fixed trait but as a developmental outcome shaped by continuous, intentional, and value-informed practices of family members. The study makes a theoretical contribution by substantiating a comprehensive model that integrates motivational, emotional, and practical components of family upbringing. Its practical significance lies in the applicability of the results to the design of parental support programs, the prevention of family stress, the development of school–family partnerships, and the formulation of systemic family policy measures. While the study is limited by single-source data, self-report measures, and a cross-sectional design, it outlines clear directions for future longitudinal, cross-cultural, and intervention-based research.

Socio-Technical Evaluation of an EHR–PHR Interoperability Model for Tuberculosis Care Using SEIPS 3.0: A Pre-Deployment Mixed-Methods Study in Indonesia

Taufiq Sitompul — 2026-10-01

Technical exchange standards alone do not guarantee successful health information interoperability; adoption depends on work-system, governance, and organizational factors as well as data-exchange capability, yet socio-technical evaluations remain scarce in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This pre-deployment study evaluates a seven-component electronic health record (EHR)–personal health record (PHR) interoperability model for tuberculosis (TB) care, implemented as a six-layer Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) R4 architecture aligned with Indonesia’s national SATUSEHAT exchange, using the Systems Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety (SEIPS) 3.0 framework. A formative–summative mixed-methods design triangulated four evidence streams: a multi-stakeholder contextual inquiry with 93 participants across three regions (60 TB patients, 7 family caregivers, and 26 facility, district, vendor, and national-level professionals); sandbox technical verification; expert judgment; and user/stakeholder evaluation including System Usability Scale (SUS) assessment. A component was rated as strong, adequate, or needing reinforcement only where at least two streams converged. Four components were strong, two adequate, and one in need of reinforcement; all overall technical thresholds were met, but two components required organizational reinforcement. Verification showed 98.9% FHIR conformance (184/186 assertions; two failures reported), zero critical security findings, and zero offline data loss. Field evidence indicated organizational gaps: all 14 facility officers ran a facility EHR alongside the national SITB register across four EHR products with no automatic synchronization, while only 3 of 41 patients had ever been told how their data are used and 29 of 42 wanted a say in data sharing. Mean SUS was 71.8 (95% CI 66.5–77.1). All technical testing used synthetic data; clinical outcomes are projected. The findings identify work-system alignment and patient-facing data governance as priorities for subsequent implementation in LMIC disease programs.

Rethinking Territorial Attractiveness in Selected MENA Countries: A Composite Index and Panel Data Perspective

Ouail Chahbouni — 2026-10-02

This article analyses territorial attractiveness in six selected MENA countries Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Qatar and Tunisia from 2000–2024. It builds a Composite Territorial Attractiveness Index (CTAI) from seven economic, institutional, infrastructural, tourism and environmental indicators and analyses its relationships with trade openness, inflation rate, internet penetration rate, oil rents (as % of GDP) and population using panel-data econometric models. The analysis employs two-way fixed effects with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors and provides robustness checks on the estimation in terms of alternative index constructions, bandwidth sensitivity and first-difference specifications. Perhaps the strongest positive correlate of the CTAI found across all three index constructions and first-difference models is trade openness. CTAI is negatively (and slightly more significant on levels than first-differences) associated with inflation in the main and alternative specifications, Internet penetration and oil rents are not statistically significant whereas the negative population coefficient is sensitive to index construction and econometric specification. The results reaffirm the view of territorial attractiveness as a spatially complex and multidimensional concept, and call to take external integration policies into account alongside reforms by institutions, infrastructure or productive capacity. Owing to the small, unbalanced panel and ambiguous unit-root results, the findings are taken as conditional correlations rather than causal effects or fitted long-run relations.

National Heritage as Asset-Based Pedagogy: A Convergent Mixed-Methods Intervention Study of Future Primary Teachers in Kazakhstan

Kurbankulova Gulzhan — 2026-10-01

Teacher education increasingly privileges standardized competencies, digital skills, and measurable outputs, while giving less attention to cultural identity, value negotiation, and diversity in multiethnic classrooms. This study reframes national heritage as an asset-based pedagogical resource rather than a static folkloric supplement. Using a convergent parallel mixed-methods design, the study examined how a 15-week course, “National Heritage and Pedagogical Values,” influenced ethno-cultural competence, professional identity, and culturally responsive teaching readiness among 42 Master’s students in primary education in Kazakhstan. Quantitative results showed significant growth across all measured dimensions, with the strongest practical shift in behavioural/pedagogical application, t(41) = 9.77, p < .001, d = 1.51. Micro-teaching observations confirmed that candidates converted heritage concepts such as Asar, qoshqar müiiz, and kösh into subject-specific teaching tools for cooperation, geometry, ecology, and classroom dialogue. Reflexive thematic analysis of essays showed a parallel identity shift: participants moved from viewing heritage as ceremonial folklore toward using it as an inclusive pedagogical language. The findings indicate that heritage-based teacher education can strengthen culturally responsive practice when mediated through structured reflection and observable teaching performance. The study contributes a post-Soviet, Central Asian model for preparing teachers who can balance national cultural revitalization with pluralistic classroom inclusion.