Urban Victimization in Peruvian Cities: Influence of Demographic and Population Factors on Citizen Security

Rafael Romero-Carazas; Fabrizio Del Carpio-Delgado; Roque Juan  Espinoza-Casco; Renza Adriana Alexandra  Rodríguez-Asto; Lorena Karolay  Quiñones-Ormeño; David Hugo  Bernedo-Moreira; Wilter C.  Morales-García

doi:10.48161/qaj.v6n1a2101

Authors

Rafael Romero-Carazas Department of public administration, Faculty of Administration, Universidad Nacional de Moquegua, Moquegua 1801, Perú; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8909-7782
Fabrizio Del Carpio-Delgado Department of public administration, Faculty of Administration, Universidad Nacional de Moquegua, Moquegua 1801, Perú; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6334-7867
Roque Juan Espinoza-Casco Department of public administration, Faculty of Administration, Universidad César Vallejo, Lima 150132, Perú; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1637-9815
Renza Adriana Alexandra Rodriguez-Asto Department of public administration, Faculty of Administration, Universidad Nacional de Moquegua, Moquegua 1801, Perú; https://orcid.org/0009-0007-1704-7816
Lorena Karolay Quiñones-Ormeño Department of public administration, Faculty of Administration, Universidad Nacional de Moquegua, Moquegua 1801, Perú; https://orcid.org/0009-0002-0306-5507
David Hugo Bernedo-Moreira Department of public administration, Faculty of Administration, Universidad César Vallejo, Lima 150132, Perú; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4883-8529
Wilter C. Morales-Garcia Department of Education, Faculty of Education, Universidad Peruana Unión, Lima 150132, Perú. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1208-9121

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.48161/qaj.v6n1a2101

Keywords:

crime, victimization, public security, population density, Peru.

Abstract

The rapid transformation of large urban concentrations in Latin America faces new challenges due to crime, especially in the most profound socio-economic contrasts between cities with high population density. This study sought to examine the features of urban victimization in Peru. The research used a quantitative, non-experimental and cross-sectional design, from data collected by the 2024 National Survey of Budgetary Programmes and analyzed with statistical software version 26.0. The use of this methodology facilitated the exploration of space, producing a more nuanced understanding and revealing unique spatial patterns of victimization across different sizes of urban areas. The results showed that victimization depends on demographic factors and the size of population centers, with higher levels of insecurity in large cities. In intermediate and small urban areas, population growth revealed a complex and even negative relationship with crime, where community cohesion may act as a protective factor. The most novel finding is that population size does not always increase criminality, as its effects vary according to social and territorial contexts. In addition, young people aged 15 to 29 were identified as the most vulnerable group, and property crimes had the highest incidence, while sexual assaults and frauds were notably underreported. t is concluded that urban victimization in Peru responds to differentiated dynamics according to the size and characteristics of population centers. The results show that population growth does not always increase crime, as in certain contexts it may be associated with protective effects. This highlights the need for citizen security policies adapted to each territory and especially focused on youth and the most recurrent crimes.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Boivin, R. (2018). Routine activity, population(s), and crime: Spatial heterogeneity and conflicting propositions about the neighborhood crime–population link. Applied Geography, 95, 79–87.

Browning, C. R., Calder, C. A., Boettner, B., & Smith, A. (2017). Ecological networks and urban crime: The structure of shared routine activity locations and neighborhood-level informal control capacity. Criminology, 55(4), 754–778.

Berg, M. T., Baumer, E., Rosenfeld, R., & Loeber, R. (2016). Dissecting the prevalence and incidence of offending during the crime drop of the 1990s. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 32(3), 377–396.

Rogers, E., & Pridemore, W. A. (2016). Research on social disorganization theory and crime in rural communities. In The Routledge international handbook of rural criminology. Routledge.

Tchinda, P. E., & Kim, S.-N. (2020). The paradox of “eyes on the street.” Sustainability, 12(13), 5300.

Choi, K.-S., & Lee, J. R. (2017). Theoretical analysis of cyber-interpersonal violence victimization and offending using cyber-routine activities theory. Computers in Human Behavior, 73, 394–402.

Vilalta, C., & Fondevila, G. (2021). Testing routine activity theory in Mexico. The British Journal of Criminology, 61(3), 754–772.

Adams, I., Ghosh, S., & Runeson, G. (2023). Perceived differential vulnerability and climate change-related hazards in informal settlements in Accra, Ghana: Re-thinking vulnerability to climate change in urban areas. Local Environment, 28(4), 433–458.

Xiong, H. (2016). Urban crime and social disorganization in China. Springer.

Reyns, B. W., Henson, B., & Fisher, B. S. (2016). Guardians of the cyber galaxy. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 32(2), 148–168.

Anthony, R. M., & Robison, K. K. (2018). Forced urbanisation: A cross-national assessment of the effects of intranational political violence on a nation’s largest cities. Urban Studies, 55(13), 2923–2945.

Hanusch, F. (2020). Comparing journalistic cultures. Routledge.

Kappeler, V. E., Gaines, L. K., & Schaefer, B. P. (2020). Community policing. Routledge.

Montoya, L., Junger, M., & Ongena, Y. (2016). The relation between residential property and burglary. Environment and Behavior, 48(4), 515–549.

Smith, M. E., Ortman, S. G., Lobo, J., Ebert, C. E., Thompson, A. E., Prufer, K. M., Liendo Stuardo, R., & Rosenswig, R. M. (2021). Low-density urban systems of the Classic Period Maya. Latin American Antiquity, 32(1), 120–137.

Ghani, Z. A. (2017). A comparative study of urban crime between Malaysia and Nigeria. Journal of Urban Management, 6(1), 19–29.

Chung, A. (2019). Theoretical perspectives on organised crime. In Chinese criminal entrepreneurs in Canada (Vol. I, pp. 33–68). Springer.

Forney, M., & Ward, J. T. (2019). Identity, peer resistance, and antisocial influence: Modeling direct and indirect causes of desistance. Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology, 5(1), 107–135.

Pridemore, W. A., Roche, S. P., & Rogers, M. L. (2018). Cashlessness and street crime. Justice Quarterly, 35(5), 919–939.

White, C., Weisburd, D., Wire, S., Dong, B., & Ready, J. (2022). Communities, streets, and people. Victims & Offenders, 17(8), 1116–1146.

Amante, A., Saraiva, M., & Marques, T. S. (2021). Community crime prevention in Portugal: An introduction to local safety contracts. Crime Prevention and Community Safety, 23(2), 155–173.

de Melo, S. N., Pereira, D. V. S., Andresen, M. A., & Matias, L. F. (2018). Spatial/temporal variations of crime: A routine activity theory perspective. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 62(7), 1967–1991.

Nagin, D. S., Solow, R. M., & Lum, C. (2015). Deterrence, criminal opportunities, and police. Criminology, 53(1), 74–100.

Parks, M. J. (2014). Urban poverty traps. Urban Studies, 51(9), 1812–1832.

Elntib, S., McPherson, P., Ioannou, M., & Addy, D. (2020). When sex is more than just sex: Evaluating police perspectives regarding the challenges in interviewing victims of sexual offences in Jamaica. Policing and Society, 30(3), 255–275.

Holt, T. J., Brewer, R., & Goldsmith, A. (2019). Digital drift and the “sense of injustice”: Counter-productive policing of youth cybercrime. Deviant Behavior, 40(9), 1144–1156.

Cabrera-Barona, P. F., Jimenez, G., & Melo, P. (2019). Types of crime, poverty, population density and presence of police in the Metropolitan District of Quito. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 8(12), 558.

Jones, S. (2018). Social disorganization theory and neighborhood crime. In The handbook of criminological theory (pp. 121–136). Routledge.

Abbas, T., Awan, I., & Marsden, J. (2023). Pushed to the edge: The consequences of the “Prevent Duty” in de-radicalising pre-crime thought among British Muslim university students. Race, Ethnicity and Education, 26(6), 719–734.

Plöger, J. (2007). The emergence of a “city of cages” in Lima. Cybergeo.

Heinze, J. E., Krusky-Morey, A., Vagi, K. J., Reischl, T. M., Franzen, S., Pruett, N. K., Cunningham, R. M., & Zimmerman, M. A. (2018). Busy streets theory: The effects of community-engaged greening on violence. American Journal of Community Psychology, 62(1–2), 101–109.

Otto, I. M., Reckien, D., Reyer, C. P. O., Marcus, R., Le Masson, V., Jones, L., Norton, A., & Serdeczny, O. (2017). Social vulnerability to climate change. Regional Environmental Change, 17(6), 1651–1662.

Ohmer, M. L., Teixeira, S., Booth, J., Zuberi, A., & Kolke, D. (2016). Preventing violence in disadvantaged communities. Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment, 26(7–8), 608–621.

Willoughby, T., Heffer, T., Good, M., & Magnacca, C. (2021). Is adolescence a time of heightened risk taking? Developmental Review, 61, 100980.

Kubrin, C. E., & Mioduszewski, M. D. (2019). Social disorganization theory: Past, present and future. In Handbook on crime and deviance (pp. 197–211).

Hopkins, M., & Shelton, N. (2019). Identifying money laundering risk in the United Kingdom. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 25(1), 63–82.

Perez-Vincent, S. M., Abril, V., Chen, C., Tayo, T., & Urrego Jimenez, A. (2024). Crime underreporting in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Buhaug, H., & Urdal, H. (2013). An urbanization bombs? Population growth and social disorder in cities. Global Environmental Change, 23(1), 1–10.

Magaloni, B., Franco-Vivanco, E., & Melo, V. (2020). Killing in the slums. American Political Science Review, 114(2), 552–572.

Stricot, M. (2021). Understanding the factors behind the under-reporting of sexual violence. SSRN Electronic Journal.

Beckley, A. L., Rocque, M., Tuvblad, C., & Piquero, A. R. (2021). Maturing out of victimization: Extending the theory of psychosocial maturation to victimization. Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology, 7(4), 543–571.

McCuish, E. C., Lussier, P., & Corrado, R. (2021). The life-course of serious and violent youth grown up. Routledge.

Ismagilova, E., Hughes, L., Rana, N. P., & Dwivedi, Y. K. (2022). Security, privacy and risks within smart cities. Information Systems Frontiers, 24(2), 393–414.

Jones, R. W., & Pridemore, W. A. (2019). Toward an integrated multilevel theory of crime at place. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 35(3), 543–572.

Berrone, P., Gelabert, L., Massa-Saluzzo, F., & Rousseau, H. E. (2016). Understanding community dynamics in the study of grand challenges: How nonprofits, institutional actors, and the community fabric interact to influence income inequality. Academy of Management Journal, 59(6), 1940–1964.

Graif, C., Lungeanu, A., & Yetter, A. M. (2017). Neighborhood isolation in Chicago: Violent crime effects on structural isolation and homophily in inter-neighborhood commuting networks. Social Networks, 51, 40–59.

O’Brien, B. G., Collingwood, L., & El-Khatib, S. O. (2019). The politics of refuge. Urban Affairs Review, 55(1), 3–40.

Payne, J. L., Morgan, A., & Piquero, A. R. (2021). Exploring regional variability in the short-term impact of COVID-19. Crime Science, 10(1), 7.

Steffensmeier, D., Kramer, J., & Ulmer, J. (1995). Age differences in sentencing. Justice Quarterly, 12(3), 583–602.

Gottfredson, M. R., & Hirschi, T. (2016). The criminal career perspective as an explanation of crime and a guide to crime control policy. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 53(3), 406–419.

Strickland, N. J., Tang, K. T. Y., Wekerle, C., & Stewart, S. H. (2023). Fostering resilience and countering stigma. Psychological Trauma, 15(6), 1012–1021.

Velásquez, D., Medina, S., Yamada, G., Lavado, P., Nunez-del-Prado, M., Alatrista-Salas, H., & Morzán, J. (2020). Crime news coverage and crime perception. World Development, 136, 105111.

Bitar, S., & Long, T. (2019). International security in Latin America. In Oxford research encyclopedia of politics. Oxford University Press.

Campedelli, G. M., Aziani, A., & Favarin, S. (2021). Exploring the immediate effects of COVID-19 containment policies on crime: An empirical analysis of the short-term aftermath in Los Angeles. American Journal of Criminal Justice, 46(5), 704–727.

Eck, J. E., & Clarke, R. V. (2019). Situational crime prevention: Theory, practice and evidence. In Handbook on crime and deviance (pp. 355–376).

Sypion-Dutkowska, N., & Leitner, M. (2017). Land use influencing the spatial distribution of urban crime. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 6(3), 74.

Bernburg, J. G. (2019). Labeling theory. In Handbook on crime and deviance (pp. 179–196).

Post, A. E. (2018). Cities and politics in the developing world. Annual Review of Political Science, 21(1), 115–133.

Chouhy, C. (2019). Social support and crime. In Handbook on crime and deviance (pp. 213–241).

Oteng-Ababio, M., Owusu, A. Y., Owusu, G., & Wrigley-Asante, C. (2017). Geographies of crime and collective efficacy in urban Ghana. Territory, Politics, Governance, 5(4), 459–477.

McLean, K., Wolfe, S. E., & Pratt, T. C. (2019). Legitimacy and the life course. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 56(1), 42–83.

Fernandez, K. E., & Kuenzi, M. (2010). Crime and support for democracy in Africa and Latin America. Political Studies, 58(3), 450–471.

Hodgkinson, T., & Farrell, G. (2018). Situational crime prevention and Public Safety Canada’s crime-prevention programme. Security Journal, 31(1), 325–342.

Sampson, R. J., & Groves, W. B. (1989). Community structure and crime. American Journal of Sociology, 94(4), 774–802.

Loeber, R., Menting, B., Lynam, D. R., Moffitt, T. E., Stouthamer-Loeber, M., Stallings, R., Farrington, D. P., & Pardini, D. (2012). Findings from the Pittsburgh Youth Study. Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry, 51(11), 1136–1149.

McCord, E. S., & Houser, K. A. (2017). Neighborhood parks, evidence of guardianship, and crime. Security Journal, 30(3), 807–824.

Xie, M., Heimer, K., Lynch, J. P., & Planty, M. (2018). Victimization of young Latino adults. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 34(3), 657–690.

Mazerolle, P. (2017). Developmental and life-course criminological theories. Routledge.

Valasik, M., & Torres, J. (2022). Civilizing space or criminalizing place. Critical Criminology, 30(2), 443–463.

Valdebenito, S., Ttofi, M. M., Eisner, M., & Gaffney, H. (2017). Weapon carrying in and out of school. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 33, 62–77.

Braga, A. A. (2014). The importance of both opportunity and social disorganization theory in a criminological framework. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 51(4), 436–445.

Ball, J., Grucza, R., Livingston, M., ter Bogt, T., Currie, C., & de Looze, M. (2023). The great decline in adolescent risk behaviours: Unitary trend, separate trends, or cascade? Social Science & Medicine, 317, 115616.

Leukfeldt, E. R., & Yar, M. (2016). Applying routine activity theory to cybercrime. Deviant Behavior, 37(3), 263–280.

Bharath Maneel, M., Sri SaiHarsha, M., Rahul Sai, S., Vivek, C., Kavitha, M., Devarapalli, D., & Mythrayee, D. (2025). Anomaly detection in transactions using machine learning. Edu-Tech Enterprise, 3, 21.

McNeeley, S. (2015). Lifestyle-routine activities and crime events. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 31(1), 30–52.

Zabyelina, Y., Thachuk, K. L., & Savona, E. U. (2022). The private sector and organized crime. Routledge.

Wortley, R., & Townsley, M. (2016). Environmental criminology and crime analysis (2nd ed.). Routledge.

Warner, B. D., Beck, E., & Ohmer, M. L. (2010). Linking informal social control and restorative justice. Contemporary Justice Review, 13(4), 355–369.

Luo, X., Li, H., Hu, Q., & Xu, H. (2020). Why individual employees commit malicious computer abuse. Journal of the Association for Information Systems, 21, 1552–1593.

Kondo, M., Fluehr, J., McKeon, T., & Branas, C. (2018). Urban green space and its impact on human health. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 15(3), 445.

Auyero, J., Burbano de Lara, A., & Berti, M. F. (2014). Violence and the state at the urban margins. Journal of Contemporary Ethnography, 43(1), 94–116.

Rosenbaum, D. P. (1988). Community crime prevention. Justice Quarterly, 5(3), 323–395.

Wickes, R. (2017). Social disorganization theory. In Preventing crime and violence (pp. 57–66). Springer.

Aguilar, A. G., Ward, P. M., & Smith Sr, C. B. (2003). Globalization, regional development, and mega-city expansion in Latin America: Analyzing Mexico City’s peri-urban hinterland. Cities, 20(1), 3–21.

Dobbs, C., Escobedo, F. J., Clerici, N., de la Barrera, F., Eleuterio, A. A., MacGregor-Fors, I., Reyes-Paecke, S., Vásquez, A., Zea Camaño, J. D., & Hernández, H. J. (2019). Urban ecosystem services in Latin America: Mismatch between global concepts and regional realities? Urban Ecosystems, 22(1), 173–187.

Hernandez, W. (2019). Do criminal justice reforms reduce crime and perceived risk of crime? A quasi-experimental approach in Peru. International Review of Law and Economics, 58, 89–100.

De Vries, B., van Busschbach, J. T., van der Stouwe, E. C. D., Aleman, A., van Dijk, J. J. M., Lysaker, P. H., Arends, J., Nijman, S. A., & Pijnenborg, G. H. M. (2019). Prevalence rate and risk factors of victimization in adult patients with a psychotic disorder: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Schizophrenia Bulletin, 45(1), 114–126.

Braga, A. A., & Clarke, R. V. (2014). Explaining high-risk concentrations of crime in the city. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 51(4), 480–498.

Silva, P., & Li, L. (2020). Urban crime occurrences and built environment characteristics. Sustainability, 12(7), 3056.

Zhang, Y., You, C., Pundir, P., & Meijering, L. (2023). Migrants’ community participation and social integration in urban areas. Cities, 141, 104447.

Comunale, T., Calderoni, F., Marchesi, M., Superchi, E., & Campedelli, G. M. (2020). Systematic review of the social, psychological and economic factors relating to involvement and recruitment into organized crime. In Understanding recruitment to organized crime and terrorism (pp. 175–204). Springer.

Satchell, J., Craston, T., Drennan, V. M., Billings, J., & Serfaty, M. (2023). Psychological distress and interventions for older victims of crime. Trauma, Violence, & Abuse, 24(5), 3493–3512.

Hernández, W., Dammert, L., & Kanashiro, L. (2020). Fear of crime examined through diversity of crime, social inequalities, and social capital: An empirical evaluation in Peru. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Criminology, 53(4), 515–535.

Bueger, C., & Edmunds, T. (2020). Blue crime: Conceptualising transnational organised crime at sea. Marine Policy, 119, 104067.

Cohen, L. E., & Felson, M. (1979). Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44(4), 588–608.

Tharshini, N. K., Ibrahim, F., Kamaluddin, M. R., Rathakrishnan, B., & Che Mohd Nasir, N. (2021). Personality traits and criminality. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(16), 8663.

Anwar, D., Mallik, A., Faizanuddin, M., & Chandan, A. (2025). Artificial intelligence and ICT in enhancing economic and productivity indicators for smart cities. Edu-Tech Enterprise, 3, 36.

National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI). (2024). Estadística de seguridad ciudadana. https://m.inei.gob.pe/media/MenuRecursivo/boletines/boletin_seguridad_2.pdf

Witbooi, E., Ali, K.-D., Santosa, M. A., Hurley, G., Husein, Y., Maharaj, S., Okafor-Yarwood, I., Quiroz, I. A., & Salas, O. (2020). Organized crime in the fisheries sector. Nature, 588(7836), 48–56.

Onyeneke, C. C., & Karam, A. H. (2022). An exploratory study of crime. Urban Science, 6(3), 43.

Costa, B. M., Kaestle, C. E., Walker, A., Curtis, A., Day, A., Toumbourou, J. W., & Miller, P. (2015). Longitudinal predictors of domestic violence perpetration and victimization: A systematic review. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 24, 261–272.

Weisburd, D., Braga, A. A., Groff, E. R., & Wooditch, A. (2017). Can hot spots policing reduce crime in urban areas? Criminology, 55(1), 137–173.

Fox, B. H., Jennings, W. G., & Farrington, D. P. (2015). Bringing psychopathy into developmental and life-course criminology theories and research. Journal of Criminal Justice, 43(4), 274–289.