Spatial Analysis and Assessment of the Impact of Critical Imports on the Sustainability of Regional Economic Growth

Leonid Elshin; Alia Dinmukhametova; Dilyara Abdrakhmanova

doi:10.48161/qaj.v6n3a2352

Authors

Leonid Elshin Department of World and Regional Economics, Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University, Kazan 420008, Russia; Center for Advanced Economic Research of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tatarstan, Kazan 420111, Russia; Department of Economics, University of Management TISBI, Kazan 420012, Russia;
Alia Dinmukhametova Department of World and Regional Economics, Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University, Kazan 420008, Russia; Center for Advanced Economic Research of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tatarstan, Kazan 420111, Russia; Kazan National Research Technological University, Kazan 420015, Russia;
Dilyara Abdrakhmanova Department of Economics and Management in Sports, Povolzhsky State University of Physical Culture, Sports and Tourism, Kazan 420010, Russia.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.48161/qaj.v6n3a2352

Keywords:

Import dependence, Critical imports, Sustainability of economic growth, International supply chains, Spatial panel data analysis.

Abstract

The study examines import-substitution models under conditions of global economic fragmentation, external trade restrictions, and disruptions in international supply chains. The aim of the article is to develop a methodological approach for identifying critically significant imported goods and assessing their relationship with the sustainability of regional economic growth. The empirical analysis focuses on the regions of the Volga Federal District of the Russian Federation. The study combines a three-stage authentication procedure for identifying critical imports at the HS/FEACN-code level, FEACN–RCPEA matching, and panel-data modeling. The novelty of the study lies in linking commodity-level critical import identification with regional production categories and estimating the economic significance of critical import dependence at the regional level. The results show that 21 groups of goods can be classified as critical imports. The preferred random effects model indicates that a reduction in critical imports by 1 million rubles is associated with a decrease in production volume by approximately 750 thousand rubles. Theoretically, the study connects import dependence with regional resilience and supply-chain transformation. Practically, the findings support selective import-substitution policy, supplier diversification, and targeted regional industrial support.

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