Determinants of Tax Revenue Performance in Morocco: Evidence from an ARDL Model

Nissar  Yassine; Nfissi  Maryam; Azzaz  Fatima Ezzahra; Kamali  Oulaya; Konnekssi  Salma; M'hamdi  Mohamed; Es-Sanoun  Mohamed

doi:10.48161/qaj.v6n4a2653

Authors

Nissar Yassine Faculty of Legal, Economic and Social Sciences, Sidi Mohammed Ben Abdellah University, Fez 30000, Morocco; https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3374-0062
Nfissi Maryam Faculty of Legal, Economic and Social Sciences, Sidi Mohammed Ben Abdellah University, Fez 30000, Morocco; https://orcid.org/0009-0008-3290-5337
Azzaz Fatima Ezzahra National School of Business and Management, Abdelmalek Essaâdi University, Tangier 90000, Morocco. https://orcid.org/0009-0003-4099-8768
Kamali Oulaya Faculty of Legal, Economic and Social Sciences, Sidi Mohammed Ben Abdellah University, Fez 30000, Morocco; https://orcid.org/0009-0006-0192-8515
Konnekssi Salma Faculty of Legal, Economic and Social Sciences, Sidi Mohammed Ben Abdellah University, Fez 30000, Morocco; https://orcid.org/0009-0005-9354-4780
M'hamdi Mohamed Faculty of Legal, Economic and Social Sciences, Sidi Mohammed Ben Abdellah University, Fez 30000, Morocco; https://orcid.org/0009-0004-0219-6040
Es-Sanoun Mohamed Faculty of Legal, Economic and Social Sciences, Sidi Mohammed Ben Abdellah University, Fez 30000, Morocco; https://orcid.org/0009-0001-4862-5689

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.48161/qaj.v6n4a2653

Keywords:

Tax revenue, ARDL, Political stability, Real effective exchange rate, Unemployment, Morocco.

Abstract

Based on the ARDL framework, this research investigates the factors that characterize tax revenue performance in Morocco during 2000–2023. Potential overparameterization in the small annual sample is addressed through a parsimonious Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) (1,0,2,0,1,0,0) specification that captures dynamic relationships among the variables. The results indicate that tax revenue is persistent, as the lagged dependent variable is positive and highly significant. Political stability has a significant contemporaneous relationship with tax revenue, while the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) shows a positive contemporaneous effect followed by a negative lagged effect. Under the same specification, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and foreign direct investment (FDI) are not statistically significant, whereas unemployment is negatively associated with tax revenue at the 10% significance level. The exact finite-sample bounds F-test provides inconclusive evidence of a long-run level relationship, and the complementary bounds t-test does not support cointegration. Accordingly, the reported long-run multipliers are interpreted as conditional model-implied estimates rather than established equilibrium effects. Overall, tax revenue performance in Morocco is better characterized by persistence and short-run macroeconomic and institutional dynamics than by a statistically established long-run relationship. The findings also underscore the need for caution when drawing causal policy conclusions from a small annual sample.

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